The Census Bureau today released the 2023 American Community Survey (ACS), which shows a total foreign-born or immigrant population (legal and illegal) of 47.83 million in July 2023 — an increase of 1.65 million compared to the 2022 ACS. The size of the foreign-born population and the year-over-year increase are the largest the survey has ever shown.1 At 14.3 percent of the total U.S. population, the share is also a record in the ACS.
The bureau also released on Tuesday, September 10, the Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey (ASEC CPS), which shows a foreign-born population of 51.26 million as of March 2024 — an increase of 2.48 million over March 2023. The ASEC CPS shows the foreign-born were 15.5 percent of the total U.S. population.2 As with the ACS, the total size, single-year increase, and share of the U.S. population that is foreign- born in the 2024 ASEC CPS are all new record highs for the survey.3
(The likely reasons for the differing numbers are differing methodologies as well as the fact that the ASEC CPS is more recent, reporting March 2024 numbers, rather than the ACS's July 2023.)
The Census Bureau is clear that illegal immigrants are included in their survey data. As record-setting as these results are, the numbers may still significantly understate the scale of immigration to the United States, particularly in the ACS. For one thing, there is monthly data collected by the Census Bureau that shows even higher numbers, which the Center for Immigration Studies has reported on over the last two years. But even on their own terms, the new ACS and ASEC CPS show unprecedented levels of growth.
In interpreting the estimates below, please note that the margin of error for the foreign-born population in the ACS is ±191,000 in 2023, and ±575,000 for the 2024 ASEC CPS.
Other Interesting Findings:
- Immigrants from Latin America account for 76 percent, or 1.25 million, of the increase in the foreign-born population from July 2022 to July 2023 in the ACS.4 Of the 2.48 million increase in the foreign-born population from March 2023 to March 2024 in the ASEC CPS, 97 percent, or 2.41 million, is due to immigrants from Latin America.
- The rapid increase in Latin Americans in the two surveys reflects the large increase in illegal immigrants in the data. We have previously estimated that some 58 percent of the increase in Census Bureau data is from illegal immigration.
- The non-citizen population also shows a dramatic increase, which further supports the idea that the number of illegal immigrants has surged. Over the last year, non-citizens accounted for 72 percent of the increase in the total foreign-born population in the ACS and 63 percent of the increase in the ASEC CPS.
- The increase in the foreign-born is all the more striking because there are about 280,000 deaths per year among the existing foreign-born, and emigration is estimated to be 500,000 per year at a minimum. Yet, the total foreign-born population is still growing at an unprecedented pace.5
- Net migration of the foreign-born — the difference between the number coming vs. leaving each year — equals growth in the foreign-born plus annual deaths. The numbers from the ACS imply net migration of roughly 1.9 million from mid-2022 to mid-2023, while the ASEC CPS implies net migration of roughly 2.8 million from March 2023 to March 2024.
- Whether one uses net migration of 1.9 million or 2.8 million, the figures are extremely high by historical standards. Moreover, they are dramatically higher than the net international migration estimated by the Census Bureau in its 2023 population estimates released in December of just 1.14 million.6
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End Notes
1 The ACS dates back to 2000. The increase in the foreign-born population from 2020 to 2021 was 1.75 million; however, the Census Bureau reports that it does not have confidence in the 2020 ACS due to disruptions in data collection caused by the pandemic — which, among other issues, caused the foreign-born population in the data to fall by 1.42 million from 2019 to 2020, creating a very low base population in 2020.
2Table A-1 (pp. 18 and 19) in ”Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2023” shows the total foreign-born population in the ASEC CPS in 2022 and 2023. The 2023 health report uses the 2024 ASEC CPS, as the survey asks about health insurance coverage in the prior calendar year.
3 The ASEC CPS goes back many decades, but did not identify the foreign-born until 1994.
4 We define Latin America as Mexico plus all the countries in Central and South America and the Caribbean.
5 Given the age, race, and sex of the foreign-born there is slightly less than six deaths per thousand per year. An emigration or out-migration of 500,000 represents a conservative estimate. In 2022, Foster, Knapp, and Vickstrom of the Census Bureau estimated an emigration rate among the foreign-born of 1 percent to 1.5 percent (~500,000 to ~1,000,000) in most years.
6 Table NST-EST2023-COMP in the population estimates shows the bureau’s estimate of net international migration (NIM). Net international migration as defined by the Census Bureau primarily reflects the movement of the foreign-born in and out of the country. In addition to the movement of immigrants, the bureau’s estimate of NIM reflects the movement of the U.S.-born in and out of the country as explained in the methodology. However, in general the movement of the U.S.-born in and out of the country is roughly equal in most years. As a result, it is the movement of immigrants in and out of the country that primarily determines changes in NIM. The bureau has struggled with estimating net international migration for years, particularly the movement of the foreign-born. This is understandable given the difficulty in measuring illegal immigration in particular. This was true long before the current border surge. When the Census Bureau issued its 2022 population estimates, it went back to 2010 and found that its estimates of NIM from 2010 to 2021 were too low by a total of nearly two million. It seems extremely likely the bureau is still significantly underestimating NIM. This matters a great deal because the sample weights used in the ACS and ASEC CPS both are based on the population estimates, which in turn are based on estimates of births, deaths, and NIM. If the NIM migration estimate is too low, it means the weights are too low, and so are the estimates of the foreign-born population in the ACS and ASEC CPS.