The latest Harvard/Harris poll is out, and charitably, it’s a mixed bag for the Trump administration. That said, it shows an increase in support for “mass deportations” of aliens here unlawfully, and a big (five-point) jump in the percentage of voters favoring removal of illegal aliens who have committed crimes in this country. As an aside, it might not be too early to invest in a “marcobobby2028” URL.
The poll was conducted for the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University by The Harris Poll and Harris X, which surveyed 1,725 registered voters between May 29 and 30. The margin of error is +/-2.4 points.
Trump Approval, Generally
The president’s approval rating held steady compared to the April Harvard/Harris poll, with 43 percent of respondents approving of the job Donald J. Trump is doing in his current role (24 percent “strongly” approving) and 53 percent disapproving (41 percent strongly so).
Trump likely has his immigration stance to thank for the fact that his numbers haven’t fallen further in recent months from the 47 percent approval rating he enjoyed in December.
When voters were asked whether they approved or disapproved of the president’s performance across 10 subject areas, from “the economy” (a dismal 39 percent approval rating) to “managing the Iran conflict” (even worse at 38 percent approval, but better than his 35 percent approval on “inflation”), the two “bright spots” that stood out for Trump were law-enforcement related: “fighting crime in America’s cities” (48 percent approval); and immigration, an area in which the president has the approval of nearly half (49 percent) of the electorate.
That’s good for him, because: (1) approval of the president’s performance on immigration is up two points from April (47 percent approval); and (2) immigration was identified as one of the top three “most important issues facing the country today”, a choice of 22 percent of those polled (though down two points from April).
That said, the top two “most important issues” for voters were inflation (38 percent, up 3 points from April) and the “economy and jobs” (31 percent, also up three points from the prior month’s polling), and as noted Trump is flailing among voters on both.
Approval of Individuals and Institutions
Voters were given a list of 19 institutions and 14 individuals and asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view of each.
Trump’s favorability, not surprisingly, roughly tracked voters’ views on his performance as president, with 43 percent viewing the incumbent favorably (25 percent “very favorably”) and 50 percent having an unfavorable take on the man himself (40 percent “very unfavorable”) — a seven-point gap.
Still, he’s doing better than Elon Musk in the voters’ minds (38 percent favorable vs. 46 percent unfavorable, an eight-point gap), Chuck Schumer (26 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable for a 14-point gap under Harvard/Harris math), or Zohran Mamdani (23 percent favorable but 33 percent unfavorable, 10 points in the red).
That said, Trump better look over his shoulder because two of his cabinet secretaries are coming on strong: Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (43 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable, five points in the black) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (38 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable, ditto).
Curiously, the U.S. Military (76 percent favorable) is doing three points better than the country its members are sworn to defend (73 percent favorable view of the United States), while the “police” (64 percent favorable) are head and shoulders in popularity above their purportedly more professional colleagues in the FBI (55 percent favorable) — and DHS (49 percent favorable and 34 percent unfavorable, a 15-point advantage) is way outpacing DOJ (47 percent favorable vs. 36 percent unfavorable, an 11-point edge).
That said, one of DHS’s key agencies — ICE, which is responsible for interior immigration enforcement — isn’t feeling the love: Just 39 percent of voters have a favorable view of the component compared to 48 percent who see it unfavorably, a nine-point gap that’s grown three points since April (40 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable).
Support for Deportations
For unpopular as the president currently is, voters view his key policies surprisingly positively — including and especially his immigration stances.
Some 80 percent of voters polled support “deporting immigrants who are here illegally and have committed crimes”, up five points from April, when three-quarters, 75 percent, supported a “worst of the worst” policy.
The rise compared to April crosses party lines, as support for criminal illegal deportations has risen among Democrats (71 percent support May; 63 percent April), Republicans (90 percent support May; 89 percent April), and Independents (79 percent support May; 73 percent April).
Then there’s “deporting all immigrants who are here illegally”, and the responses to that one are truly surprising.
A solid majority, 56 percent, of the voters polled by Harvard/Harris in late May support such a “mass deportation” plan, including 77 percent of GOP voters, 53 percent of Independents, and well more than a third (37 percent) of Democrats.
While overall that’s a modest one percentage-point climb compared to April (55 percent support, well within the margin of error), it also represents a four-point jump compared to April among both Independents (49 percent support then) and also among Democrat voters (33 percent that month).
Had it not been for a three-point decline among Republican voters between April (80 percent support) and May (77 percent support) for deporting all those who are here unlawfully, we’d be close to talking about mass deportation as a “60-40 issue”.
A Majority of Democrats No Longer Believe Their Party Stands for “Open Borders”
Perhaps the rise in popularity for these immigration-enforcement proposals among those in the political center and on the political left is tied to respondents’ answers to a different (awkwardly written) question: “Do you think that the Democrats are standing now for open borders or are they against open borders?”
In April, 58 percent of respondents — including 53 percent of Independents, 67 percent of Republicans, and 52 percent of Democrats — thought the Party of Jackson was then in favor of open borders.
While the same percentage of Republicans and Independents viewed Democrats as an “open-borders” party in the latest Harvard/Harris poll, the overall percentage of voters holding that view fell to just 56 percent, led by a shift among Democrats themselves.
More than half (52 percent) of Democrats polled now say that their party is “against open borders”, and given there hasn’t been any change in official policy to explain that shift, perhaps it’s wishful thinking among the party’s adherents who want more immigration enforcement — especially since their four-point swing on that binary question in a month is well outside the poll’s margin of error.
Similarly, a solid overall majority of voters (55 percent) now believe Democrats are in favor of “deporting violent criminals here illegally”, up from 51 percent in April and again largely driven by Democrats themselves.
In the last Harvard/Harris poll, just a third (33 percent) of GOP voters thought Democrats were in favor of deporting aliens who had committed violent crimes, a view then held by 71 percent of Democrat voters and half (50 percent) of Independents.
By May, fully 78 percent of Democrats and a majority (53 percent) of Independents held that opinion, up three points among the nonaligned and a significant seven-point climb among Democrat voters.
Whether that results in heat on leaders in largely Democrat cities and states with “sanctuary” policies that impede or flat-out block ICE from taking “violent criminals here illegally” into custody and removing them remains to be seen, but it’s either a PR issue “Border Czar” Tom Homan needs to address, an issue he could exploit, or a center-left grass-roots vibe shift (or possibly all three).
Key Takeaways
With the partisan rancor surrounding Kristi Noem’s tenure as DHS secretary receding, there’s a small but perceptible shift in the percentage of voters who favor immigration enforcement, particularly but not exclusively when it involves criminal illegal aliens. That said, it may take a while before ICE receives any credit for the indispensable role it plays in that process.