The latest Harvard/Harris poll was just released, and it reveals a modest bump in approval for President Trump’s immigration policies generally and for removing all aliens who are present in the United States illegally in particular. The electoral implications of the poll’s finding that a large majority of Democrats support “open borders”, however, have yet to be seen.
The poll was conducted between April 23 and 26 by The Harris Poll and Harris X for the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and surveyed 2,745 registered voters. The margin of error was +/- 1.87 percentage points — a key fact to keep in mind as you review the results.
Trump Approval Generally, and on the Issues
Some 42 percent of respondents approved of Trump’s overall performance as president (25 percent “strongly”), while 53 percent disapproved (39 percent strongly).
That represents a modest, one-point decline in the Trump’s popularity compared to March polling, but on the “bright side” for the White House, that’s a two percentage-point drop in respondents who “strongly disapprove” of the job Trump is doing this month compared to last (41 percent “strong disapprove”).
In addition, with 46 percent approval among “likely midterm voters”, the president is holding serve compared to March polling in that key electoral demographic — albeit still underwater.
The president’s relatively poor showing is (almost definitely) directed related to voters’ dour view of his performance on certain key issues, such as “the economy” (39 percent approval, down one point from March), “handling inflation” (37 percent approval, ditto), and “reducing the cost of the government” (42 percent, down two points) — the latter likely linked to voters’ impressions of the price of the ongoing Iran war.
Trump (relatively) shines, however, when it comes to two “law-and-order” issues: “fighting crime in America’s cities” (48 percent approval) and “immigration” (47 percent approval).
The president’s approval is up one point compared to March on both of those subjects — well within the margin of error, but at least headed in the right direction for the incumbent.
Favorability of 17 Public Figures and ICE
In that regard, Trump’s unfavorability also declined by one point in April compared to last month, falling from 52 percent to 51 percent, while his favorability held steady at 42 percent, meaning that while the president is still in the red among voters, it’s now more amaranth and less crimson.
Interestingly, former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem’s favorability actually declined in April, from 22 percent in March to 20 percent, while the percentage of voters who viewed her unfavorably held steady at 38 percent (42 percent of respondents either didn’t know who she was or didn’t have an opinion).
Noem was reassigned from her former position early last month, but I guess the news has either traveled slowly or taken a while to sink in.
Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. received the highest favorability rating of the 17 public figures polled, with 44 percent of respondents viewing RFK, Jr. favorably and just 37 percent having an unfavorable view of the HHS chief (7 percent favorability overall).
Secretary of State Marco Rubio was the only other public figure to receive a net-positive rating in the Harvard/Harris poll, with 37 percent of voters viewing America’s chief diplomat in a favorable light and 33 percent taking a less charitable position.
That’s a four-point bump in favorability for Kennedy and a three-point rise for Rubio month-to-month, with the former’s unfavorable falling three points and the latter’s two points during that period.
Speaking of favorability, 40 percent of respondents had a positive view of ICE, compared to 46 percent who viewed the interior immigration enforcement agency unfavorably.
This is relatively good news for the agency, given that April’s assessment represented a three-point jump among those viewing ICE favorably and a three-point decline among the unfavorables compared to March.
For what it’s worth, DHS overall enjoyed a 14-point net favorable rating in April (48 percent favorable vs. 34 percent unfavorable), a six-point overall jump compared to March.
More likely than not, the lingering funding shutdown for the department has reminded voters just how many duties DHS is tasked with, and how critical those obligations are to Americans’ daily lives.
Popularity of Trump Policies — Including “Mass Deportation”
Notwithstanding Trump’s rather dismal approval ratings, most of his key policies as polled by Harvard/Harris are viewed favorably by the voters — including immigration enforcement.
Three-quarters, 75 percent, of registered voters support Trump’s policy of deporting illegal criminal aliens, including 73 percent of Independents and 63 percent of Democrats — views “sanctuary” politicos who are actively blocking ICE access to jails and prisons may want to heed.
It should also be noted that criminal deportations are Trump’s second-most popular policy, trailing just “lowering prescription drug prices for Medicare recipients and low-income patients” (84 percent support) and two points ahead of cutting fraud and waste in government spending (73 percent support).
Similarly, 55 percent of respondents favored “deporting all immigrants who are here illegally”, including 49 percent of Independents but just a third, 33 percent, of Democrat voters.
That is a modest one-point overall rise in support for a “mass deportation” regime compared to March, but a two-point boost among Independents and (for what it’s worth) a one-point increase among Democrats.
Members of the “Mass Deportation Coalition” who are pressing Trump to fulfill his large-scale removal promises on the 2024 campaign trail have engaged in a full-court public-relations push to promote such policies, and perhaps their efforts have borne fruit.
On the other hand, as passions over ICE’s contentious operations in Minneapolis and elsewhere have cooled, and Trump “Border Czar” Tom Homan has taken control of interior immigration enforcement, maybe voters are reminded why they supported Trump’s immigration positions to begin with.
“Open Borders”
Finally, Harvard/Harris asked respondents: “Do you think that the Democrats are standing now for open borders or are they against open borders?”
A wide majority, 58 percent, of those polled stated that Democrats support open borders (a two-point rise compared to March), including 53 percent of Independents and more than half (52 percent) of Democratic voters themselves.
“Open borders” has long been anathema among wide swathes of the electorate, and Biden DHS head Alejandro Mayorkas invited impeachment attempting (unsuccessfully) to convince Congress that his policies had not fostered such a condition at the U.S.-Mexico line, so it’s a surprise that so many adherents of the Party of Jackson believe the elected officials they support “stand” for it.
Whether Democrat candidates pay a price for voters’ impressions in the midterm elections remains to be seen, but as left-leaning pundit Ruy Teixeira, for one, has argued:
The immigration issue has been a total disaster for the Democrats. They encouraged mass immigration through lax border and interior enforcement and porous asylum systems that effectively legalized illegal immigration and made a mockery of controlled, legal immigration. Over time, the intense unpopularity of these policies has contributed hugely to tanking Democrats’ working-class support.
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Clearly Democrats are much happier denouncing ICE (including calling for its abolition) and Trump than they are grappling with the immigration issue and making clear, unambiguous commitments to radical reform.
“Most Americans Favor Immigration Enforcement”
In March, I told the Washington Post: “Most Americans favor immigration enforcement. They just don’t want to see or hear much about it.” For proof, look to the latest Harvard/Harris poll, which shows that as DHS has toned down the immigration-enforcement rhetoric, its policies have enjoyed a modest resurgence in popularity — possibly to the detriment of the president’s political opponents.