The February 12 Employment Situation Report, based on the Current Population Survey (CPS), also called the “household survey”, shows that the foreign-born (immigrant) population, both legal and illegal, ages 16 and older grew significantly between December 2025 and January 2026, though it is still smaller than when Trump took office in January 2025. (Published tables released so far are only for the 16-plus population, not the entire population.) For reasons that are unclear, the January 2026 CPS is not controlled using the new Vintage 2025 population estimates but instead is based on the old Vintage 2024 population estimates used for the monthly CPS throughout 2025.
Normally, the data is readjusted every January based on the latest information, but strangely that didn’t happen this time. Using the 2024 estimates instead of the new ones could make a significant difference in the size of the immigrant population because the Census Bureau, which creates the estimates, found a much higher level of net international migration (NIM) in the 2024 estimates than in the 2025 estimates. There was already some uncertainty around the immigrant population in the survey and this issue with weights only adds to it.
The press release that accompanied the January 2026 CPS states:
The annual population control adjustments that are usually incorporated with the release of January estimates in February will instead be introduced with the release of February 2026. … Consequently, the initial January 2026 household survey estimates in this news release continue to use short-term projections of monthly population estimates derived from … Vintage 2024 population estimates. … As soon as practicable, BLS plans to revise January 2026 estimates to incorporate the updated population controls.
Like virtually every modern survey, the CPS is weighted to reflect the estimated size of the entire U.S. population. This means that each individual is “weighted up” so that the total population in the survey looks like the total U.S. population, or the best estimate of what the government thinks the population looks like. The weighting methodology of the CPS is actually very complex as a number of adjustments are made to the data. The survey is weighted by key “control” variables like age, gender, and race so that it reflects the nation’s population in size and composition. Being “foreign-born” or “immigrant” — those not U.S. citizens at birth — is itself not a control variable and is allowed to vary based on respondent answers, just like unemployment or educational attainment.
The Census Bureau’s original Vintage 2024 population estimates found that annual net international migration, the difference between the number coming and the number leaving, was 2.79 million annually. This is the annual level incorporated into all the monthly data for 2025, and now apparently the January 2026 CPS. The new Vintage 2025 population estimate found net migration was 1.3 million — less than half of what it was in 2024, which was almost certainly the highest level of net migration in American history. (The 2024 NIM number was revised slightly downward with the 2025 estimates.) The Census Bureau called the much lower level in 2025 a “Historic Decline in Net International Migration”.
Even though being foreign-born is not a control variable, NIM is highly correlated with race and Hispanic origin, which are control variables. In the December 2025 CPS, 34 percent of Hispanics were foreign-born, as were 59 percent of non-Hispanic Asians. In contrast, just 3.5 percent of non-Hispanic whites were foreign-born. In short, carrying the much higher level of migration found in the 2024 population estimates forward to the January 2026 CPS inflates the number of Hispanics and Asians. This could have a significant impact on the size of the foreign-born population. Of course, it is only one additional month of overestimated NIM, so it is possible it will not make that much difference. When the February 2026 CPS is released we will have a better idea of how much difference using the old weights made. The BLS promises to release a re-weighted January 2026 CPS using Vintage 2025 population estimates “as soon as practicable”. Comparing the current version of the January 2026 data to the re-weighted version would reveal the exact impact of using the old estimates.