The Surge of Children and Families at the Border Began when Biden Took Office and Is Not a Seasonal Variation

[Update: 3/31/21: The Washington Post article quoted here has since been "slightly revised", including changes to its headline. The quotes in this blog are from the original version of their article.]

A brief analysis published by the Washington Post on March 23 suggested that “there’s no migrant surge at the U.S. southern border.” Instead, the authors argue, the dramatic increase in apprehensions of children and families is just the “usual seasonal bump” in apprehensions that happens every year. They also argue that the increase in apprehensions reflects “pent-up demand” of people who would have come in the last year “but for the pandemic”. (My colleague Andrew Arthur has also written about the Post analysis.)

The first argument is simply not supported by the data. The second argument may have some plausibility except for the fact that this pent-up demand suddenly manifested itself as soon as Biden took office. A far more reasonable interpretation of the data is that President Biden’s pronouncements and policies, including not returning unaccompanied children under Title 42 and releasing Central Americans within 72 hours of apprehension into the United States, as well as his stated desire to end most deportations and continued support for legalizing most illegal immigrants, is spurring larger numbers of families and children to enter illegally.

Figure 1 shows that in January and February of last year, before Covid, the number of children and families apprehended was much less than in January and February of this year. (Unaccompanied alien children are called “UACs”; “single minors” are children apprehended with adults other than a parent.) Once in place in April, the Covid travel restrictions caused a falloff in apprehensions for a time, but by the end of last year apprehensions were back to pre-Covid levels. However, when President Biden took office, the number surged, suddenly and dramatically. If it really was “pent-up demand” and unrelated to the change in administration, then the question has to be asked: Why was this demand suddenly released only after Biden’s inauguration?

Figure 1. Border Patrol Apprehensions of UAC/Single Minors and Family Units Surged at the Southwest Border as Biden Took Office, January 2020 to February 2021

Source: Border Patrol apprehensions from “Southwest Land Border Encounters”, Customs and Border Protection, March 10, 2021.

On its face, it would seem that the policies and statements by the new administration are being interpreted by prospective migrants to mean that if they are apprehended, they are more likely to be released. Or, if they enter successfully, they are less likely to be sent home than was the case under the prior administration. Some interviews with migrants indicate that this is the case.

Figure 2 examines the seasonality of apprehensions of children and families. It compares December of each year to February of the following year (the green bar). It also compares January to February of the same year. February of this year looks to be very different from prior years. The jump in apprehensions from December to February or January to February is much larger than in the past. In fact, in some years there is little change from December to February or January to February or even an outright decline. The 2019 border crisis, which was building by February of that year, looks to be the only other time when the increase in February came close to the increase we see today. The argument that illegal migration “shifting upward this time of year” explains the increase in children and families apprehended, as the authors of the Post piece argue, is not consistent with actual trends.

Figure 2. Change in Number of UAC/Single Minors and Family Units, December to February and January to February

Sources: Border Patrol apprehensions from “Stats and Summaries”, Customs and Border Protection, undated; and “Southwest Land Border Encounters”, Customs and Border Protection, March 10, 2021.

To be sure, seasonality does play a role in the ebb and flow of illegal immigration at the Southwest border. However, in this case, the sudden increase in apprehensions of children and families in January and February of this year is not explained by normal seasonality. We can also see this in Table 1, which shows the number of apprehensions of children and families in January and February each year since 2013. Again, the numbers we are seeing in the first two months of this year are very different from almost every other year.

Figure 3 reports apprehensions of children and families, as well as individual adults. The number of apprehensions of adults surged dramatically after Covid travel restrictions were put in place in April last year. Some of the surge in single adults after April is due to people from countries other than Mexico (OTMs) being quickly expelled back to that country under Title 42, which is an emergency order instituted by the CDC in response to the pandemic. Prior to Covid, single non-Mexican adults had to be processed, which took time. Because most are now quickly expelled, they are able to try over and over again to reenter and this shows up as a dramatic rise in apprehensions. However, this cannot be the whole story because Mexican apprehensions have also been increasing. More analysis is clearly needed in this area, but it is entirely possible that the hope of a Biden victory and then his statements and policies since winning are playing a role in encouraging more single adults to enter illegally.

Figure 3. Border Patrol Apprehensions at the Southwest Border, October 2012 to February 2021

Sources: Border Patrol apprehensions from “Stats and Summaries”, Customs and Border Protection, undated; and “Southwest Land Border Encounters”, Customs and Border Protection, March 10, 2021.

All of the available evidence indicates that the number of children and families apprehended at the border has surged suddenly in a way that does not reflect seasonal variation. Rather, the surge occurred just as the new administration took office, a clear indication that the profound policy changes of the new president are the primary cause. There is little doubt that America is entering into a new border crisis similar to the one in 2019 that caused the Trump administration to adopt policies that helped to end it — policies that have been ended or modified by the new administration, which predictably have sparked a new border crisis.