With the election behind us, and new (and undefined) border policies under the second Trump administration in the offing, you may assume Americans’ interest in immigration has abated. But if so, you’d be wrong, as a pair of new polls show that voters are still anxious about what has been an unprecedented surge of illegal migrants into the United States over the past four years — and hopeful about what the new president will deliver. Overall, the responses are likely best viewed as some combination of optimism for the future and reaction to the current state of affairs at the border.
The Economist/YouGov Poll. The first of those polls was conducted by opinion outfit YouGov for UK periodical The Economist. It was conducted from December 8 to 10, with YouGov surveying 1,593 U.S. adults (including 1,415 registered voters). That poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.
Almost as an afterthought, the poll asked respondents whether they approved or disapproved of President Biden’s handling of immigration.
Consistent with polls since mid-2021, an overwhelming percentage of voters — 60 percent — disapproved of the outgoing administration’s performance, compared to just 31 percent of the electorate polled who approved.
There was a clear partisan split on the issue, as 62 percent of voters who cast their ballots for current Vice President Kamala Harris approved of the administration’s handling of immigration, while 90 percent of Trump voters disapproved.
Political affiliation aside, there was only one demographic group where a plurality approved of the job Biden has done on immigration: 47 percent of Black respondents approved, compared to 37 percent who disapproved. Among Hispanic voters, by contrast, 54 percent disapproved of Biden’s performance on the issue compared to just 35 percent who approved.
Respondents were also given 15 different topic areas and asked which one was the most important to them.
Not surprisingly, “inflation” came out on top, the choice of nearly a quarter (23 percent) of respondents.
I would say the cost of living was the leading issue across all demographics (and it was), though interestingly inflation tied for first place with another issue among one fortunate group: respondents making more than $100,000 per year.
The issue that is tied (at 17 percent) with inflation as the most important issue for the highest wage earners? “Immigration”, tied with “jobs and the economy” for second among the 15 issues that YouGov polled among Americans overall, but beating out jobs as an issue among registered voters (14 percent for immigration to 13 percent for pocketbook concerns).
The further to the right on the political spectrum you are, the more likely you are to be concerned about immigration, at least according to the Economist/YouGov poll. Some 23 percent of conservatives, 21 percent of Republicans, and 26 percent of Trump voters stated that immigration is the most important issue facing our nation.
Conversely, just 3 percent each of liberals, Democrats, and Harris voters felt the same way.
By the way, self-described liberals were most concerned about “climate change and the environment”, the choice of 17 percent of this cohort, followed closely by “health care”, at 16 percent.
Back to the main point, however — the more money you earn the more likely you are to be concerned about immigration. It was identified as the most important issue by just 9 percent of those earning less than $50,000 annually, by 13 percent of those making between $50,000 and $100,000 per year, and as mentioned by 17 percent of those making $100,000 and more per annum.
Note that in late October, in the last Economist/YouGov poll prior to the election, it was those middle wage earners who were most likely to identify immigration as the most important issue to them.
Then, 15 percent of both registered and likely voters said immigration was their top issue (putting it again in second place behind inflation), but just 12 percent of the highest and lowest earning U.S. adults named it as their key concern, compared to 14 percent of those making between $50,000 and $100,000 per year who said the same.
Not to read too much into one poll, or to speculate, but these responses may suggest that the wealthiest Americans are now (post-election) concerned about how a Trump immigration crackdown will impact their ability to secure the labor of illegal workers who may not be here for long.
Perhaps there are other explanations (and immigration is a complicated topic), and again, this is just one poll.
The CNN/SSRS Poll. On December 11, CNN released the results of a its own poll, this one performed for the outlet by research outlet SSRS.
That poll was conducted between December 5 and 8, and surveyed 1,011 U.S. adults, with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.8 percent.
It revealed that a solid majority — 73 percent of respondents — are following news of the Trump transition very or somewhat closely, and that a smaller (though significant) majority — 55 percent — of respondents approve of the moves the president-elect is making in the run-up to Inauguration Day.
More specifically (or parochially), however, that poll also shows that a solid bloc of Americans — 60 percent — have confidence in Donald Trump in dealing with immigration.
That includes majorities across all age, educational, and wealth demographics, as well as across racial lines (though just 51 percent of what this poll described as “people of color” and the same percentage of college graduates generally are confident in the president-elect’s ability to handle the issue).
Separately, SSRS asked respondents their feelings about the incoming administration, with 52 percent of those polled saying they were either “enthusiastic” (19 percent) or “optimistic” (32 percent), compared to 48 percent of respondents who were either “pessimistic” (19 percent) or “afraid” (29 percent) about Trump Part Two.
SSRS next asked those who said they were enthusiastic why they felt that way, and they gave roughly 30 different answers.
The leading reason why respondents were so chipper about the next administration had to do with economic issues (“Economy/Inflation/Jobs/Taxes”), the response of 22 percent of those optimistic respondents.
Next, 19 percent were hopeful about the next four years because of Trump’s experience and how he had governed the country the last time around.
Third place was taken by “Immigration/Border/Deportations”, at 10 percent. No other reason polled in double digits.
Taken in toto, these responses either indicate that Americans were pleased with the immigration policies that the Trump administration implemented the first time around or were turned off by what Biden-Harris have done on the border and deportations, or (most likely) some combination thereof.
As Joni Mitchell once asked, “Don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got ‘til it’s gone?”, and that certainly appears to be the case with the American public when it comes to Donald Trump and immigration.
As the CNN and Economist polls show, Donald Trump will be taking office in January with the wind at his back, at least as it relates to immigration. That may be due to what the 45th president did to secure our borders the last time around, or as to a reaction to what’s happened over the last four years, but the real answer is likely somewhere in between.