Summary
- On June 4, President Trump issued an “entry ban” restricting travel to the U.S. for nationals of 19 countries, concluding that “[n]ationals of some countries … pose significant risks of overstaying their visas … which increases burdens on immigration and law enforcement components of the United States, and often exacerbates other risks related to national security and public safety.”
- I pointed out that nationals of 31 countries had higher B visa (temporary visitors for business or pleasure) overstay rates than that of Cubans (with Cuba subjected to the entry ban in part because of its overstay rate), and nationals of 67 countries had higher F (student), M (vocational student), and J (exchange student, scholar, professor, and researcher) overstay rates than that of Laotians (with Laos subjected to the entry ban in part because of its overstay rate).
- I urged President Trump to “consider further entry bans for nationals of countries with even higher estimated overstay rates (often extraordinarily high) … than those of nationals of some of the countries subject to entry bans”.
- Last week, President Trump issued a revised “entry ban”, adding 20 additional countries, concluding that “[t]o faithfully uphold United States immigration law, the flow of foreigners from countries with high overstay rates or significant fraud must stop”:
- Of the 31 countries with higher B visa overstay rates than Cuba, the December Proclamation banned 35 percent of them (11 countries), and for the 21 of those 31 countries with the highest overstay rates, it banned 52 percent of them (11 countries).
- Of the 67 countries with higher F, M, and J overstay rate than Laos, the December Proclamation banned 27 percent of them (18 countries), and for the 29 of those 67 countries with the highest overstay rates, it banned 52 percent of them (15 countries).
- President Trump has indeed supersized the entry ban, which should result in fewer visa overstayers, a smaller illegal alien population, and a more secure United States in the future.
The June Proclamation
On June 4, President Trump issued an “entry ban” restricting travel to the U.S. for nationals of 19 countries (12 in full and seven in part). He concluded in his proclamation “Restricting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the United States from Foreign Terrorists and Other National Security and Public Safety Threats” (“June Proclamation”) that “[n]ationals of some countries … pose significant risks of overstaying their visas … which increases burdens on immigration and law enforcement components of the United States, and often exacerbates other risks related to national security and public safety.”
Upwards of 40 percent of illegal aliens in the U.S. did not cross the border illegally, but rather came legally on a temporary basis and then overstayed their visas. Further, the 9/11 Commission’s “9/11 and Terrorist Travel: Staff Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States” considered visa overstaying to be one of the “entry and embedding tactics” used by terrorists prior to the 9/11 attacks. My colleague Steven Camarota concluded in 2002 in “The Open Door: How Militant Islamic Terrorists Entered the United States, 1993-2001” that “[a]t least 13 of the 47 terrorists in this study had overstayed a temporary visa at some point prior to taking part in terrorist activity.” And House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte noted in 2013 that “terrorist overstays include Hosan Smadi, a Jordanian national who plotted to blow up a Dallas skyscraper in 2009, and Amine El Khalifi, a Moroccan whose visa expired in 1999 and who was arrested in an attempt to bomb the U.S. Capitol in 2012”.
Thus, President Trump made eminent sense when he stated in the June Proclamation that:
[I]n determining what [entry] restrictions to impose for [nationals of] each country.… I considered foreign policy, national security, and counterterrorism goals. And I further considered various factors, including each country’s screening and vetting capabilities, information sharing policies, and country-specific risk factors — including whether each country has a significant terrorist presence within its territory, its visa-overstay rate, and its cooperation with accepting back its removable nationals. [Emphasis added.]
In July, I wrote in Supersize the Entry Ban: President Trump should add more countries whose nationals overstay visas at high rates that “President Trump is absolutely right. Nationals of certain countries do pose significant risks of overstaying their visas, which increases law enforcement burdens and often exacerbates national security and public safety risks.”
But I also pointed out that in 2023 nationals of 31 countries had higher B visa (temporary visitors for business or pleasure) overstay rates than the 7.7 percent rate of Cubans (with the June Proclamation subjecting Cubans to the entry ban in part because of this overstay rate), and nationals of 67 countries had higher F (student), M (vocational student), and J (exchange student, scholar, professor, and researcher) visa overstay rates than the 6.5 percent rate of Laotians (with the June Proclamation subjecting Laotians to the entry ban in part because of this overstay rate).
I therefore urged President Trump to “consider further entry bans for nationals of countries with even higher estimated overstay rates (often extraordinarily high) in 2023 than those of nationals of some of the countries subject to entry bans” under the June Proclamation.
The December Proclamation
On December 16, President Trump issued a new proclamation “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States” (December Proclamation). He concluded in his December Proclamation that “most of the countries identified in [the June] Proclamation, ... as well as others, continue to exhibit woeful inadequacies in screening, vetting, and provision of information” and stated that “[t]he Secretary of State, with the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security … recommend[ed] that entry restrictions and limitations continue to apply to foreign nationals of several countries.”
President Trump stated that “the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, the Secretary of Homeland Security, and the Director of National Intelligence have identified additional countries that cannot meet basic criteria for identifying their nationals and residents who pose national security and public safety threats and for sharing information with the United States” and “identified additional countries for which vetting and screening information is so deficient as to warrant a full or partial suspension of admission.”
President Trump also stated that:
Foreign nationals from the countries [named in the December Proclamation] have … exploited the historic generosity of the United States and violated our Nation’s immigration laws by not adhering to the terms of their nonimmigrant or immigrant visas…. [F]oreign nationals from many countries have high nonimmigrant visa overstay rates. These visa overstays and other abuses flagrantly violate United States immigration laws…. To faithfully uphold United States immigration law, the flow of foreigners from countries with high overstay rates or significant fraud must stop.
President Trump decided to continue to fully restrict and limit the entry of nationals of Afghanistan, Burma, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. He added seven additional countries to the list of fully restricted countries – Burkina Faso, Laos, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, and Syria – and in addition added individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority.
President Trump decided to continue to partially restrict and limit the entry of nationals of Burundi, Cuba, Togo, and Venezuela (and modified the partial restriction of nationals of Turkmenistan). He added 15 countries to the list of partially restricted countries – Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Cote d‘Ivoire (Ivory Coast), Dominica, Gabon, the Gambia, Malawi, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Tonga, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
President Trump considered “factors, including visa-overstay rates … in making the determinations in this proclamation”, which were “based on the totality of the circumstances with respect to each country after a review of all relevant factors.” He emphasized that “[t]he restrictions and limitations imposed by this proclamation are necessary … to garner cooperation from foreign governments, including as to reducing overstay rates of their nationals”.
As to visa-overstay rates, the December Proclamation pointed out that in 2024:
- Burkina Faso had a B-1/B-2 visa overstay rate of 9.16 percent and an F, M, and J visa overstay rate of 22.95 percent.
- Laos: B‑1/B-2 = 28.34 percent; F, M, and J = 11.41 percent
- Niger: B-1/B-2 = 13.41 percent; F, M, and J = 16.46 percent
- Sierra Leone: B-1/B-2 = 16.48 percent; F, M, and J = 35.83 percent
- South Sudan: B-1/B-2 = 6.99 percent; F, M, and J visa = 26.09 percent
- Syria: B-1/B-2 = 7.09 percent; F, M, and J = 9.34 percent
- Angola: B-1/B-2 = 14.43 percent; F, M, and J = 21.92 percent
- Benin: B-1/B-2 = 12.34 percent; F, M, and J = 36.77 percent
- Cote d ‘Ivoire: B-1/B-2 = 8.47 percent; F, M, and J = 19.09 percent
- Gabon: B-1/B-2 = 13.72 percent; F, M, and J = 17.77 percent
- The Gambia: B-1/B-2 = 12.70 percent; F, M, and J = 38.79 percent
- Malawi: B‑1/B-2 = 22.45 percent; F, M, and J = 31.99 percent
- Mauritania: B-1/B-2 visa overstay rate of 9.49 percent
- Nigeria: B-1/B-2 = 5.56 percent; F, M, and J = 11.90 percent
- Senegal: B-1/B-2 = 4.30 percent; F, M, and J = 13.07 percent
- Tanzania: B-1/B-2 = 8.30 percent; F, M, and J = 13.97 percent
- Tonga: B‑1/B-2 = 6.45 percent; F, M, and J = 14.44 percent
- Zambia: B‑1/B-2 = 10.73 percent; F, M, and J = 21.02 percent
- Zimbabwe: B-1/B-2 = 7.89 percent; F, M, and J = 15.15 percent
Of the 31 countries with higher 2023 B visa overstay rates than Cuba, the December Proclamation either fully or partially banned 35 percent of them (11 countries), and for the 21 of those 31 countries with the highest overstay rates, it banned 52 percent of them (11 countries).
Of the 67 countries with higher 2023 F, M, and J overstay rates than Laos, the December Proclamation either fully or partially banned 27 percent of them (18 countries), and for the 29 of those 67 countries with the highest overstay rates, it banned 52 percent of them (15 countries).
President Trump has indeed supersized the entry ban, which should result in fewer visa overstayers in the future, a smaller illegal alien population, and a more secure nation.