The latest Harvard/Harris poll is in, and it presents a mixed bag on immigration, with an increasing number of voters (mostly Republicans) saying it matters to them personally while impressions of ICE remain negative. And it’s still one of Donald Trump’s strongest issues, even though he’s underwater on it — which is why you should expect Republicans to highlight it during the midterm elections.
The poll was conducted for the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University by The Harris Poll and Harris X, which surveyed 2,100 registered voters between August 28 and 30. The margin of error was +/- 2.1 points.
Approval of Political Figures and Institutions
That poll reveals that the president’s approval rose — ever so slightly — compared to July, with 44 percent of registered voters approving of Trump’s performance (24 percent “strongly approving”) compared to 52 percent who disapproved (39 percent strongly disapproving).
As bad as that may sound with a midterm election less than two months away, it’s a two-point overall increase in approval compared to July, and a resultant two-point decrease in the number of voters who disapprove of the job the president is doing.
In fact, it’s the highest approval rating Trump has received in a Harvard/Harris poll since February, when his overall approval rating stood just slightly higher at 46 percent.
As in prior months, just two U.S. political figures are viewed favorably by the U.S. electorate: Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (43 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable, for +4-point favorability) and Secretary of State Marco Rubio (38 percent favorable, 34 percent unfavorable, and also +4-point favorability).
Trump’s favorability, on the other hand, is underwater at -8 points (42 percent favorable and 50 percent unfavorable), tied with Tesla, SpaceX, The Boring Company, and X titan Elon Musk and Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), but far outshining New York Democrat (and Senate Minority Leader) Chuck Schumer (-17 points) and Michigan Democrat Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed (-18 points).
Curiously, the only other politico viewed favorably by American voters is Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (L), who came in 27 percent favorable, 26 percent unfavorable, for an overall favorability of +1 points. Sometimes being largely unknown but still viewed as a Trump nemesis is enough for some people to like you.
Speaking of our neighbor to the north, 58 percent of U.S. voters polled had a favorable view of “Canada” (24 percent unfavorable), though fortunately three-quarters of them (75 percent) also had a favorable view of their home country (although 17 percent of the electorate surveyed did have an unfavorable view of the United States).
Ukraine (with a net favorability of +15 points) and Israel (net favorability of +2 points) are two other nations in the “nice” column, while the European Union (favorability: +10 points) is also viewed positively overall by registered voters.
“Naughty” nations in the collective minds of the U.S. electorate include Saudi Arabia (-15 points); China (-32 points); the Palestinian Authority (-30 points); Russia (-49 points); and Iran (-54 points).
Free enterprise (with a +35-point favorable rating) and capitalism (net favorability +15 points) beat Socialism (-21 points), though only the former received majority support (and then, at 51 percent favorable, just barely). That said, few argue that “true free enterprise has never been tried”.
Curiously, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) had a +13-point favorability rating (47 percent favorable, 34 percent unfavorable), but it’s highest-profile agency at the moment, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is eight points underwater, at 47 percent unfavorable to 39 percent favorable (though up three points from July polling, and up eight points from January, when it was -16 points).
Most Important Issues
Harvard/Harris also asked voters what they considered to be “the most important issues facing the country today”.
As usual, pocketbook concerns came out on top, with 35 percent responding, “Price increases/inflation/ affordability” and 27 percent identifying the “economy and jobs”.
“Health care” (22 percent) with “immigration” (21 percent) closely trailing were third and fourth among the most important issues named by the voters surveyed, though the “U.S.-Iran Conflict” — a choice of 20 percent of registered voters, up 5 points from July, is closing fast.
Separately, Harvard/Harris asked which of 10 issues polled “is most important to you personally?”
That shook up the responses a bit, because while nearly half — 46 percent — named inflation, 14 percent said it was “restoring basic American values of merit and competence” and just 2 percent identified the “Iran war” as the issue that was most important to them on a personal level.
By contrast, 11 percent of registered voters polled said immigration was the issue most important to them personally, up four points from July.
In that earlier poll, 11 percent of GOP voters, 4 percent of Democrats, and 6 percent of Independents said immigration was the issue most important to them personally, whereas in the latest poll, almost one-fifth (19 percent) of Republicans named immigration as their top concern, with a small two-point rise among Democrats and a tiny one-point increase among the politically unaligned on the issue, month-to-month.
Midterm Messaging
While there are likely a number of reasons for this surge in the number of Republicans fretting about migration and the border, my best guess is they fear a Democrat-controlled Congress in January 2027 will force the Trump administration to change course on its pro-enforcement policies.
As support for that belief, consider a number of proposed Democrat and Republican political messages for the midterm elections that Harvard/Harris polled.
The most popular and believable Democrat midterm messages focused on inflation and tariffs, abortion and women’s rights, GOP cuts to entitlements, and Trump himself. None said anything about immigration, the border, or ICE enforcement.
The most “believable” and “convincing” Republican talking point, aside from one having to do with “Woke DEI policies”, on the other hand, read as follows: “If you bring the Democrats back, you will be bringing back open borders, higher taxes, woke race and gender policies, and congressional gridlock dominated by impeachments and investigations” (emphasis added).
Some 59 percent of respondents polled found that message to be “believable” (36 percent “very believable”) and 56 percent called it “convincing” (32 percent calling it very convincing).
Or consider this question, which Harvard/Harris also polled:
The Democrats and the elites in this country have systematically made it hard for the working person and their families by giving the economy away to illegal immigrants and to foreign countries like Mexico and China. Only Trump and the Republicans have stood up against this, and stopped illegal immigration and put tariffs on foreign goods to encourage made in America.
Much more than half, 57 percent, of respondents polled said this message was believable (33 percent very believable) and 55 percent called it convincing (32 percent very convincing).
Or this message: “The Democrats are doing everything they can to reopen the border and again flood the country with illegals.”
Some 55 percent of voters polled said it was believable and 54 percent said it was convincing, with one third of respondents (33 percent) calling it both very believable and very convincing.
The “Generic” Congressional Ballot
Not to bury the lede, but the most surprising responses in that poll had to do with the “generic” congressional ballot.
Harvard/Harris asked respondents: “If the congressional election were held today would you be more likely to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress?”
Notwithstanding the headwinds the president and his party are facing in November, just 51 percent of respondents polled said they would vote for a Democrat, while nearly as many — 49 percent — said they would pull the lever for a GOP candidate.
More astonishing, when pollsters focused on “likely” midterm voters, those percentages flipped, with 51 percent of voters most certain to head to the polls opting for a Republican, and 49 percent for a generic Democrat.
Look at the albatrosses weighing down Republicans’ electoral prospects: voters are sour on how Trump has handled inflation (37 percent approval), the economy (41 percent approval), the “Iran conflict” (39 percent approval), “tariffs and trade policy” (38 percent approval), and a host of other issues.
Midterm elections are largely referenda on the incumbent’s performance, and the only two areas where Trump is close to holding serve are “fighting crime in America’s cities” (48 percent approval) and immigration (47 percent approval).
Maybe Joe Biden was onto something when he said, “Don’t compare me to the almighty, just compare me to the alternative” — though ironically, Biden’s own immigration policies are exactly what the GOP want midterm voters to remember.
Amidst Uncertainty, One Winning Issue Remains
Trump returned to the White House with strong support for his immigration-enforcement policies, only to see certain of his (now departed) subordinates all-but fumble the issue away.
In moving DHS’s enforcement efforts out of the spotlight even as ICE expands alien arrests, Secretary Markwayne Mullin and Border Czar Tom Homan appear to have stabilized — and to a degree calmed — voters’ concerns over the issue, even if they aren’t doing enough to satisfy many “deportation hawks”.
Tariffs and the lingering conflict in the Persian Gulf have roused inflation fears and created uncertainty in the minds of more than a few U.S. voters. But if GOP candidates are smart, they’ll look at the latest Harvard/Harris poll and realize their best talking points remind midterm voters what the border and immigration enforcement looked like before Trump returned — and what they could look like again.