Many major pollsters took a hit during the waning days of the late presidential election, but now the first major post-election poll has been released. The poll, performed by YouGov for CBS News, reveals what is likely the highest level of support Donald Trump has ever enjoyed in political life and majority backing for the deportation of illegal migrants – and most importantly, optimism for the future, particularly among blue-collar workers and Hispanics.
That poll surveyed 2,232 U.S. adults between November 19 and 22 and it has a margin of error of +/- 2.3 points.
How Do You Feel About Trump’s Victory?
YouGov asked respondents: “Which best describes how you feel about Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election?”, and given how close the popular vote was, the answers were somewhat surprising.
In response, 31 percent of those polled described themselves as “excited”, and 24 percent said they were “satisfied” – 55 percent in total, and about 5 points higher than Trump’s share of the popular vote, which was roughly 50 percent of the ballots cast.
By contrast, 23 percent of respondents said they were “dissatisfied” with Trump’s victory, and an additional 21 percent were downright “angry” (44 percent total).
The best thing that I can tell those voters is there’s another presidential election in four years, and congressional elections in 2026, which will give those voters an opportunity to vent their collective spleen.
Similarly, 53 percent of respondents said they were either “excited” (23 percent) or “optimistic” (30 percent) about what Trump would do as president, compared to 46 percent collectively who were either “concerned” (23 percent) or “scared” (also 23 percent) about the second Trump presidency.
High Marks for Trump’s Presidential Transition
Separately, respondents were asked whether they approved or disapproved of how the president-elect is handling his transition.
A surprising proportion of respondents, 59 percent, approved of what Donald Trump is doing to position himself for his next presidential term, compared to just 41 percent who disapproved. And the vast majority, 84 percent, of those polled believed that the outgoing Biden-Harris administration should do what it can to ensure that the transition is a smooth one.
None of Trump’s proposed cabinet picks received overwhelming support from respondents, but some did much better than others.
Current Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), whom Trump has tapped to serve as his secretary of State, was deemed a good choice by 44 percent of those polled, but an additional 31 percent of respondents admitted they just didn’t know enough about the 2016 GOP presidential candidate and two-plus term senator from the Sunshine State.
Just 25 percent of those polled believed that Rubio was “not good” to take the helm in Foggy Bottom.
Perhaps most surprisingly, nearly half, 47 percent, of those polled believed that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. was a good choice to serve as secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), though 34 percent believed that he was “not good” to run HHS, and 19 percent want to know more about the son of former Attorney General (and U.S. senator) Robert F. Kennedy.
By contrast, just 30 percent of respondents thought that former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) was a “good” pick as attorney general, whereas 38 percent deemed Gaetz “not good”, and 32 percent didn’t know enough about him to make up their minds.
Notably, Gaetz dropped out of the running to be the next chief law-enforcement officer of the United States on November 21, stating that his “confirmation was unfairly becoming a distraction to the critical work of the Trump/Vance Transition”.
“Mass Deportation”
YouGov also asked respondents whether they approved or disapproved of the president-elect “starting a national program to find and deport all immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally”?
In response, a solid majority, 57 percent, of those polled favored such a program, while just 43 percent disapproved of the plan.
Moreover, 82 percent believed that “federal immigration and border agencies” should carry out such a plan, and 64 percent also believed that other “federal law enforcement agencies” should be tapped to assist ICE and CBP in this effort.
All of that said, 60 percent of respondents don’t think the U.S. military should be part of that “national program”. It’s not clear, however, whether many of them realize National Guard troops have assisted Border Patrol agents through various administrations since President George W. Bush launched “Operation Jump Start” in 2006.
Separately, respondents were asked how high a priority Donald Trump should place on “developing policies and plans to deport immigrants in the U.S. illegally”.
In response, 73 percent of those polled said that those policies and plans should be either a “high priority” for the incoming administration (45 percent) or a “medium priority” (28 percent). Just 27 percent believed that deportations should not be a priority, including however nearly half (49 percent) of Democrats.
“America’s Best Days”
Perhaps most optimistically, half of respondents (50 percent) opined that “America’s best days” lie in its future, compared to just 39 percent who believe the country peaked at some point in the past, and a Panglossian minority (11 percent) who think these are America’s best days.
It should be noted that Republicans (67 percent), Hispanics (53 percent), and working-class whites (53 percent) were the most likely to state that things will only get better for the country, whereas Democrats (36 percent) were the least likely to agree.
Notably, a plurality, 45 percent, of those on the political left believe our best days are behind us.
The latter responses likely just reflect disappointment in the electoral response, but in any case, it all reminds me of the intro to Stephen Vincent Benet’s “The Devil and Daniel Webster”, which begins:
Yes, Dan'l Webster's dead—or, at least, they buried him. But every time there's a thunder storm around Marshfield, they say you can hear his rolling voice in the hollows of the sky. And they say that if you go to his grave and speak loud and clear, "Dan'l Webster—Dan'l Webster!" the ground 'll begin to shiver and the trees begin to shake. And after a while you'll hear a deep voice saying, "Neighbour, how stands the Union?" Then you better answer the Union stands as she stood, rock-bottomed and copper sheathed, one and indivisible, or he's liable to rear right out of the ground.
For those with less of a literary bent, there’s always the Charlie Daniels’ 1979 anthem, “In America”, wherein the late fiddler proclaimed:
This lady may have stumbled
But she ain't never fell
And if the Russians don't believe that
They can all go straight to hell
We're gonna put her feet back
On the path of righteousness and then
God bless America again
History is littered with figures who gambled against the United States and lost “bigly”, as the presumptive 47th president would say, from Benedict Arnold to Jefferson Davis to Arthur Zimmermann to Adolf Hitler and Admiral Yamamoto, and yet what Winston Churchill termed “the great Republic” has somehow come through inevitably stronger – sometimes despite the government’s best efforts.
That’s likely why blue-collar Americans and Hispanics are the most bullish on the country’s future prospects and may also explain why many of them put their chips on Trump on November 5.
Consider the following assessment, from Michael Fienup, head of the Center for Economic Research & Forecasting at California Lutheran University: “Latinos are hard-working, they’re self-sufficient, they’re entrepreneurial, they’re patriotic, they’re optimistic. Guess what? Those are fundamentally American characters”.
Shifting Electorates
Ruy Teixeira at the American Enterprise Institute has been making similar points about both working-class and Hispanic voters in his “The Liberal Patriot” columns for the past number of years.
More saliently, however, with respect to migrants and the border, Teixeira explained in his April 25 piece headlined “Postcard from the Hispanic Working Class”:
Interestingly, contradicting the image of Hispanic voters as being lenient on the illegal immigration issue, we find surprising unity between working-class and college-educated Hispanics on some pretty tough proposals for dealing with the problem. For example, on “Use existing presidential powers to stop illegal migrant crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border,” and “Deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing gang members and criminals living illegally in the United States,” margins in favor of these proposals range from 25-50 points across the two groups.
. . .
The days when Democrats could get away with thinking of Hispanics as one of “their” minority groups are, or should be, over.
Nothing speaks better of the United States, nor likely explains more aptly why Americans are cautiously optimistic for their country’s future, than its ability to assimilate newcomers, to inculcate them with our shared values, and to trust them to join with the rest of us in plotting our country’s direction.
Which proves yet again a key point many – particularly self-described “elites” among us – often miss: Immigration is a good thing for this country, provided it’s properly regulated and enforced to ensure that it serves our interests. I agree “America’s best days” lie ahead, so long as we keep that precept in mind.