Pull factor down in U.S. Push factor up in Mexico. Trouble predicted.

By Jerry Kammer and Jerry Kammer on May 26, 2009

Unemployment is growing in the United States, and CIS has recently reported that immigrants are being hit harder than natives by the ongoing recession. That means a sharp reduction in the pull factor in illegal immigration.

But a study by Mexican researcher Clemente Ruiz Duran indicates that the recession in Mexico is intensifying the push factor of unemployment.

The May 25 edition of the newspaper Reforma quotes Ruiz making this assessment: It is estimated that the crisis in Mexico will cause about a 4 percent decrease in the economy in 2009, which will cause even more deterioration in the labor market, increasing informal employment, unemployment, and the problems that cause the population to migrate to the United States.

Ruiz is a researcher with the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City.

Meanwhile, in a visit to the border state of Sonora, the man who claims he was cheated out of victory in the 2006 Mexican presidential election said growing unemployment means growing unrest.

Former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who calls himself Mexico's legitimate president, is quoted in Monday's edition of the newspaper El Imparcial predicting more violence, more insecurity, and other crimes due to the lack of jobs.