With Assad Gone, What’s Next for Syrians in the U.S.?

With the fall of the Assad regime last weekend, many Syrian refugees started heading back to their country; many more will likely follow.

What about the Syrians who have received protection of various sorts in the United States? Will the incoming Trump administration encourage the return of Syrian nationals and discontinue the various special protections they enjoy, or leave things as are? We don’t know, but here’s the situation as of now.

Depending on how things unfold in the days to come, and with the emergence of the true agenda of the forces that overthrew Assad, the movement back to Syria might be followed by a reverse one with people fleeing again. But, for now, hope and expectations are attracting Syrians back. Turkey has even reopened the Yayladagi border crossing with Syria that was kept closed since 2013 to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees to their country.

Recent events drove many European countries to suspend the processing of Syrian asylum claims on their soil. Austria is even reassessing the status of 40,000 Syrians granted asylum in the last five years as well as preparing a “repatriation and deportation programme”, prioritizing “those who have become criminals, those who do not want to adapt to the cultural values in Europe or Austria, or those who do not want to work and therefore only live on social benefits.” 

It is worth noting that the conflict initially saw millions of Syrians fleeing their country and take shelter in neighboring ones (mainly in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan). It is only in 2015, when Russia launched an air campaign in support of Syrian President Bashar Assad, that an increasing number of refugees lost hope of an imminent return home. Russian military airstrikes that were only supposed to target ISIS terrorists did also aim at rebels, mainstream opposition groups, and civilians. That shifted the ongoing war in the favor of the Assad government and led Syrians in neighboring countries to look to Europe and beyond as the next step of their exile.

Flows across the Mediterranean increased, encouraged by stories of those who made it into Europe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel decided to open the door of her country to Syrian refugees and, in August 2015, suspended the Dublin Procedure for Syrians, meaning that Syrian refugees no longer needed to apply for asylum in the first EU country they entered. Hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees were admitted to Germany. Other countries followed suit and enhanced their welcome and protection to Syrian nationals, including United States. 

Since the fall of the Assad regime, the Biden administration has released no official statement regarding U.S. processing of Syrian asylum seekers, let alone the facilitation of the return of Syrian refugees or possible deportation of Syrian nationals.

To inform the outgoing and incoming administrations’ deliberations regarding the disposition of Syrians in the U.S., here's a look at the types of protection Syrian nationals have received in the United States since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011.

Temporary Protected Status (TPS)

Certain Syrian nationals were given Temporary Protected Status. TPS is a designation that gives illegal aliens and those on nonimmigrant visas temporary permission to remain and work in the United States if they were here when their home country suffered a natural disaster or civil strife and they cannot safely return. Syria was initially designated for TPS on March 29, 2012, by the Obama administration, and it has since been extended by the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations.

The Biden-Harris administration announced on January 26, 2024, the extension and redesignation of Syria for TPS through September 30, 2025. (“Redesignation” is a legally dubious measure that allows those who arrived after the original grant of TPS to also apply). The Biden DHS also automatically extended certain Employment Authorization Documents (EADs) of existing beneficiaries of Syria TPS through March 31, 2025.

The Congressional Research Service estimates that as of March 2024, 3,865 Syrian nationals were TPS holders, though that number does not include earlier beneficiaries of TPS who subsequently obtained green cards, so the total number granted TPS at some point since 2012 is larger.

Asylum

According to the DHS’s Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, the number of Syrian nationals granted asylum affirmatively during FY 2011-FY 2023 totals 6,016. The number granted asylum defensively in that same time is 1,129, for a total number of asylum grants of 7,145.

Refugee Resettlement

The number of Syrians resettled through the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program from FY 2011 through the first two months of FY 2025:

Priority 2 (P-2) – Group Referrals access. The Biden administration has also designated Syrian nationals as a Priority 2 (P-2) – Group Referrals with direct access to the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP). Specific groups “whose members warrant resettlement” have been designated by this administration in consultation with NGOs, UNHCR, and “other experts”. The administration’s reasoning behind this is that individual members of a group determined to be of “special humanitarian concern to the United States” will likely qualify for admission. Syrians with an approved Form I-130 petition (Petition for Alien Relative – i.e. a citizen or green-card relative here is sponsoring them for immigration) are given by the Biden administration a “Direct Access Model P-2s” designation. That means that Syrians with an approved Form I-130 petition for whom immigrant visas have not yet been issued can be referred to be processed as resettled refugees, and thus not have to wait for an immigrant visa to become available.

Priority 4 (P-4) – Privately Sponsored Refugees. Syrian nationals (recent refugees who have received a green card) can choose their own “refugees” and sponsor them to come here under a new program designed by the Biden administration within USRAP. The P-4 category was added by the Biden administration following its design of the Welcome Corps program, which allows U.S-based sponsors to choose and refer individuals from any nationality for resettlement in the United States.