In his convention acceptance speech, President Donald Trump asserted, “I will end the illegal immigration crisis by closing our border and finishing the wall, most of which I’ve already built.”
Erecting physical barriers along the Mexican frontier is certainly an important dimension of putting in place the long-overdue, modern, 21st-century secure border system that the United States desperately needs. Completing such wall-building projects is slow and time-consuming (although they certainly could be adequately financed with just a small fraction of the many tens of billions that Uncle Sam has dedicated to defending Ukraine).
But beyond continuing to build the wall, President Trump will need to take emergency measures on Day 1 to stop the bleeding on the southern frontier.
Obviously, the next Trump administration will start with a series of Executive Orders that terminate unlawful Biden-Mayorkas policies that release asylum-seekers into our country. Washington can control that, but fundamentally, a new era of modern U.S. border security also begins with no-nonsense diplomacy that compels Mexican authorities to cooperate.
Above all, Washington must insist that Mexicans vigorously interdict all third-country nationals moving unlawfully to cross the frontier and agree to accept the return of all illegals who entered the U.S., regardless of nationality. Such bilateral cooperation would, as a first step, restore the Migrant Protection Protocols (better known as “remain in Mexico”).
The leaders in Mexico City will no doubt see the re-election of President Trump by itself as a massive political shift. Under President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), the Mexicans have been masters of realpolitik, manipulating the hapless Biden administration, while also sometimes rescuing it politically by slowing the embarrassing numbers of migrants moving north.
The recent arrest of Sinaloa drug lords illustrates again the pathetic state of U.S.–Mexican law enforcement cooperation. For most of AMLO’s time in office, the pattern of on-and-off security cooperation has mainly been set to “off.” It is no surprise that American law enforcement did not inform the Mexicans in advance of the recent arrests.
When President Claudia Sheinbaum assumes power in October, replacing AMLO, she will be willing, however grudgingly in private, to give priority to the new Trump administration’s call for a fresh start on security cooperation. Trump should make the most of whatever goodwill comes from Sheinbaum, but her fundamental ideological views on the “human right” to migrate are the same as her predecessor’s. Sheinbaum’s own inclination to continue the intermittency of Mexico’s security cooperation should not be doubted.
In managing this Mexican zigzag, Trump must retake the initiative by implementing long-term measures that fundamentally remake the border security framework. The formula consists of fully deployed, modern land barriers; common-sense policy instructions to a reinforced and better-funded U.S. Customs and Border Protection and U.S. Border Patrol; and constant diplomatic pressure that ensures serious Mexican security cooperation. When cooperation flags, which is the historic pattern, there must be powerful negative consequences in the wider bilateral relationship. . . .