The conventional immigration narrative, favored by supporters of comprehensive immigration reform, is that the Republican Party is doomed to electoral oblivion if the House doesn't pass a bill that mirrors S.744, the Senate Gang of Eight's 1,200-page bill.
Proponents of that bill draw their analysis from straight-line extrapolations of rising numbers of Hispanics eligible to vote; that community's supposed support for every aspect of S.744, especially its requirement that 11.5 million illegal immigrants immediately be given legalized status with a dedicated path to citizenship; and the problematic nature of Hispanic support for the policies of the Republican party, on immigration, but also more widely on economic entitlement issues.
Like every narrative, it is a partial understanding constructed for a purpose.
The purpose is, obviously, to get that legislation passed for all the self-interested and publically stated, civically minded motives that animate supporters. The partial nature of the narrative is obscured when key memes are constantly repeated until they pass for "conventional wisdom".
Such is the case for the "death spiral" analysis championed by Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.): "We're in a demographic death spiral as a party and the only way we can get back in good graces with the Hispanic community in my view is pass comprehensive immigration reform."
He and other like-minded Republican establishment stalwarts might sincerely believe their "death spiral" analysis, but there is a substantial body of empirical evidence, much of it analyzed by Sean Trende here, here, and here, that suggests that GOP demographic and electoral panic is premature.
His major points, relying on detailed demographic analysis, are that:
- "It is often asserted that supporting immigration reform is a necessary precondition to addressing other issues, but that's usually just that — an assertion." Economic issues, not identity politics and immigration, drove Hispanic voters in the last election.
- "It may surprise a lot of people, but there's a substantial minority that sides with immigration hardliners in the GOP. Even the latest Pew poll, which has some reasonably favorable question wordings for the pro-reform side, finds a third of Hispanics support a 'control the border first' approach." Hispanics are not monolithic on immigration questions.
- "Democrats liked to mock the GOP as the 'Party of White People' after the 2012 elections. But from a purely electoral perspective, that's not a terrible thing to be. Even with present population projections, there are likely to be a lot of non-Hispanic whites in this country for a very long time."
Trende's argument has been mischaracterized as suggesting that the GOP abandon non-white voters, but that is precisely not his point.
He favors outreach by the GOP, and he is right, but exactly how to do that requires careful thought.
His bottom line is a good one to keep in mind as the immigration debate continues to swirl: "The GOP and Democrats should pursue the policies they believe are best for the country. If they govern competently, the coalitions will take care of themselves."
The problem is, of course, there is no agreement about which immigration policies "are best for the country". And here the GOP is faced with what seem to be two draconian choices: death by principle or death by pander.
Next: The GOP and Immigration: Principled Suicide vs. Death By Pandering