Pandering on Immigration Isn't Going to Win the White House for the GOP

By Ronald W. Mortensen on April 14, 2015

Following Mitt Romney's defeat in 2012, the Republican elites and their overpaid, habitual-loser political consultants blamed the loss on Romney's tough stance on illegal immigration. If only Romney would have been more compassionate and accommodating on the illegal immigration issue, he would now be president, according the Republican loser class. But the facts show just the opposite.

As I pointed out in an earlier blog, President Obama's 71 percent and Romney's 27 percent of Hispanic votes were generally consistent with the percentages Republican and Democratic presidential candidates have realized since 1980 (in aggregate, 31 percent and 64 percent, respectively). Romney actually gained a higher percentage of the Hispanic vote than garnered by Bush senior (25 percent) and Dole (21 percent).

The fact is that most Hispanic Americans were Democrats before illegal immigration became an issue and they will still be Democrats after it is no longer an issue. The bulk of Hispanics vote against Republicans because they are philosophically aligned with liberal, progressive Democrats. Republican ideology and positions just do not resonate with most of them.

Hispanics tend to support big, activist government and large social welfare programs such as Obamacare (69 percent in a 2014 Pew poll). They don't support constitutionally limited government, individual freedom, low taxes, and ending corporate welfare at nearly the same level as other voters.

If support for illegal aliens were a key driving force for Hispanics, then logically Jeb Bush -- who describes illegal immigration as an act of love, supports amnesty and a path-to-citizenship for all illegal aliens, and even declares himself to be Hispanic -- would be polling high among Hispanics. He isn't.

According to an ABC News/Washington Post poll, Hispanics support Hillary Clinton over Jeb Bush by 71 percent to 26 percent. This is virtually identical to the Hispanic vote for President Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012 (71 percent to 27 percent) and it mirrors the support that Hispanics give to Obamacare (69 percent).

Thus, this poll clearly shows that pandering to Hispanics on illegal immigration does nothing to change Hispanic votes. However, pandering may actually cost Republicans the 2016 election if even a small percentage of the Republican base stays home.

If Republicans really want to win a significantly larger share of Hispanic votes, they are going to have to find a way to change the big-government, big-spending attitudes of a large portion of those voters. If they can't do that, then Republicans better find a way to win without any significant increase in Hispanic votes.

 

Topics: Politics